The ratio to trend classical decomposition method was used to decompose external Hajj time series into trend, seasonal, and error components, and to forecast the number of external pilgrims. On the basis of the point forecasts, interval predictions were also generated. Point predictions were accurate according to resulting value of Theil's inequality coefficient and the 95% confidence limits established around the predicted values were able to hold most of the actual values. Projection has also been attempted outside the period of forecast.
Abou-El-Fetouh, M. (1990). Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method. The Egyptian Statistical Journal, 34(2), 378-407. doi: 10.21608/esju.1990.315049
MLA
Mohamed Fathi Abou-El-Fetouh. "Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method", The Egyptian Statistical Journal, 34, 2, 1990, 378-407. doi: 10.21608/esju.1990.315049
HARVARD
Abou-El-Fetouh, M. (1990). 'Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method', The Egyptian Statistical Journal, 34(2), pp. 378-407. doi: 10.21608/esju.1990.315049
VANCOUVER
Abou-El-Fetouh, M. Forecasting the Number Of External Pilgrims: The Ratio-To-Trend Classical Decomposition Method. The Egyptian Statistical Journal, 1990; 34(2): 378-407. doi: 10.21608/esju.1990.315049
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