Limiting the Risk of the Bayes Estimator for the Binomial Distribution

Document Type : Original Article

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Abstract

This article considers the Bayesian problem of estimating the probability of success θ of a binominal distribution when θ itself has a beta prior. The usual Bayes estimator for this situation has high risk if θ is far from the mode of the prior distribution. We suggest a rule which does not have this bad property and still perform well against the beta prior. This rule is a compromise between the Bayes rule and the MLE.

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