Using Stochastic Goal Programming in Updating the Input-Output Table with Application to Egypt

Ramadan, H. Mohamed; Raafat, Sahar A.; El-Akkad, Zienab M.

doi:10.21608/esju.2002.313795

Using Stochastic Goal Programming in Updating the Input-Output Table with Application to Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ Department of Statistics, Faculty of Economics & Political Science, Cairo University, Egypt.

² Department of Statistics, Faculty of Commerce, Zagazig University, Egypt

³ Information Center, Statistic Management, Cairo University, Egypt.

10.21608/esju.2002.313795

Abstract

The I/O Table illustrates the interaction relations between the economic sectors of the economy. This paper develops a new approach depending on stochastic programming in order to update I/O Table when the final demand is random variable. Two cases will be considered; the final demand being a random variable with exponential or with chi-square distribution. The problem will be tackled in two steps. Firstly, the relationships among the I/O Table components will be presented in a stochastic goal program form. Secondly, the stochastic program will be transformed to a deterministic goal program using the chance-constrained approach. The solution of the deterministic program gives the output I/O table. The Goal programming technique is then used to satisfy the balance conditions of I/O table; the equalization of each row-column sum. These balance conditions are formulated in linear goal program form. The solution of this L.G.P. gives the updated I/O Table.

Keywords