Measure the variation in inflation rates in Egypt using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models.

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Faculty of Commerce, Ain Shams University

Abstract

A model of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic was best to study the variance of inflation rates in Egypt from January 2006 to December 2017. This study aimed firstly to investigate suitability of the GARCH models to fit such data by examining the effect of heteroskedasticity. By using AIC, SIC, and BIC criteria of accuracy to check and choose the best model from selected models, GARCH (1,2) was the best model.

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